The money market is the first channel through which the central bank's decisions are reflected in prices
of liquidity in the system. The efficiency of this segment affects the stability of payments, the cost of
credit and the shape of the yield curve on short maturities.
Unsecured interbank
Operational definition. Interbank loans without collateral; the price incorporates
pure counterparty risk in addition to the expected monetary stance.
Voltage indicator. The differential with the secured and a rapid signal of stress:
\[
Basis_{u-s}=i_{unsec}-i_{repo}
\]
A persistent increase indicates higher credit risk premium among banks.
Secured market (repo)
Operational definition. Collateralized funding with temporary transfer of title.
It reduces counterparty risk but introduces collateral risk and haircut risk.
General collateral vs special. In the "special" segment the repo rate can drop below
the GC rate due to lack of the requested qualification.
\[
Specialness = i_{GC} - i_{special}
\]
High values reflect strong technical demand for a specific collateral.
Primary vs secondary market
Primary. The issue price and the initial cost of funding are formed.
Secondary. The price is continuously updated on flows, news macros and policy expectations.
The difference between market return and auction return signals immediate repricing of risk:
\[
\Delta y_{post} = y_{mkt} - y_{auction}
\]
\(\Delta y_{post}>0\) indicates worsening of perceived conditions after placement.
Role of the central bank
Operational levers. Refinancing operations, standing facilities and remuneration of
reserves define the reference level of overnight rates.
Transmission. When excess liquidity is large, the system tends to "floor" regime
and \(i_{ON}\) gravitates close to the deposit rate.
\[
i_{ON} \approx i_{deposit} + \varepsilon_t,\qquad \varepsilon_t\to 0 \text{ con eccesso di riserve}
\]
Operational frictions and liquidity segmentation determine the residual deviation \(\varepsilon_t\).
Official rate runner
In simplified form, the overnight market rate tends to move within a corridor:
\[
i_{deposit} \le i_{ON} \le i_{lending}
\]
The actual size depends on reserve distribution, collateralization costs and frictions
microstructural structures between intermediaries.
Term structure soon
Forward rates reflect expectations about overnight futures plus a risk/liquidity premium:
\[
i_{t,T} \approx \frac{1}{T-t}\sum_{k=t}^{T-1}\mathbb{E}_t[i_{ON,k}] + \pi_{t,T}
\]
with \(\pi_{t,T}\) premium for risk, liquidity and policy uncertainty.
In practice, \(\pi_{t,T}\) increases in phases of macro volatility or funding stress.
Simple forward tie
Between two contiguous expiries, the implicit forward is:
\[
(1+r_{0,T_2}\tau_{0,T_2}) =
(1+r_{0,T_1}\tau_{0,T_1})\,(1+f_{T_1,T_2}\tau_{T_1,T_2})
\]
where \(\tau\) are year fractions according to the day-count convention adopted.
Key relationship for inferring implicit forwards and policy expectations from spot prices.
Liquidity stress and spreads
In adverse phases, the spread between unsecured and secured widens. A summary measure:
\[
Spread_{stress} = i_{unsec} - i_{repo}
\]
Qualitative decomposition:
\[
Spread_{stress}\approx Premium_{counterparty}+Premium_{liquidity}
\]
A persistent increase signals deterioration in confidence, lower fungibility of liquidity and
higher marginal cost of non-collateralized funding.